Curse

draxynnic · Mar 30, 2009, 01:38 AM // 01:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aeon221

Flat out untrue. The supply of gold in circulation has always been increasing as there aren't very many ways to destroy it while still getting value. Unlike ecto, which does have several ways to destroy it for value.

However, I'm pretty sure that the gold supply in the real world doesn't increase at anything near the rate that the ecto supply increases in the game world. Plus, while gold isn't really destroyed, its common usage as jewelry and ornamentation does serve to remove it from the economy. Yes, such gold can be returned to the economy, but usually it only does so when things have already gone really, really bad for the (former) owner.

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Declining prices on literally everything fairly clearly indicate that per capita money has gone down.

Or that, you know, per capita supply of goods has gone up?

And I'd contest that 'literally everything'. From all I've heard, those items that do have limited numbers (CE and SE minipets, drops that can no longer be acquired) have been steadily increasing in price.

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If that were the case, old unfarmed items would slowly go up in value over time as the overall number available declined due to players leaving the game (and thus taking their items with them) while new players entered. Instead, despite the lack of farming and the utility of many old items, their prices remain crap and they cannot be found.

I'm not sure what you mean by these. Prophecies-era greens? Probably overshadowed by endgame greens and the increased flexibility made available by 'building your own'.

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IMF briefing on risks of deflation. 3% inflation is considered healthy. Guild Wars doesn't have inflation, so prices drop and markets fail.

You know, from my own training (admittedly nearly a decade ago now), I was always under the impression that inflation was seen as the cost of growth rather something desirable in and of itself, and 3% was simply seen as the level that was considered 'acceptable'. After all, in the real world, we're more used to seeing demand-driven economies - growth is driven by increases in demand, which shifts the crossover point between the supply and demand curves to one at a higher price (inflation) and total units supplied (growth). Conversely, downturns are most often driven by contractions in demand, leading to the reverse situation.

However, while growth tends to drive inflation, they are not inextricably linked. A contraction of the supply curve can lead to inflation and economic downturn - as happened in the 1970s oil shocks and as has been happening in Zimbabwe. Conversely, an expansion of the supply curve not matched by an increase in demand can lead to both deflation and growth - not a common situation to occur economy-wide in real-world economies, but it can happen with specific products if significantly more efficient means are discovered to produce that product.

Now, in a game in which people have been finding more and more efficient means to farm most goods, including ectos, and where a larger proportion of the population is employing those methods, which do you think is a better model to represent the GW economy? Demand-driven, as most real-world economies are? Or could it be that the drop in prices observed is due to increases in supply as more and more ectos and other goods flood the market? I know which I consider more significant - although I daresay that, as there are less new players entering the market and older players increasingly have everything they want, contractions in demand are also contributing to the price decreases.

However, one demand-side effect I have seen is an increase in the value of shards as ectos drop over the past year or so (I don't have records of the prices, but I remember them being closer to 1k a year or two ago) - since this hasn't seemed to be linked to nerfs of farming builds that I've noticed, I'd theorise that this is due to ectos being generally more available and thus driving the demand for shards from people for whom obsidian armour is starting to look attractive due to the drop in the ecto price.

Anyway, I really don't see how artificially increasing the price of ecto - in effect, artificially causing the supply curve of ecto to contract - is going to have a significant effect on the rest of the economy - especially in the trade of minor items that you claim such concern over. And for the reason I mentioned above, it may even cause the price of shards to drop.

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You're assuming that money supply increases just because more ecto enter the system. The current steady ~5k price indicates that there must be about the same number of ecto entering as there are leaving circulation, or the price would change.

Or the total supply of gold is increasing at roughly the same rate. Or - although I really, really doubt this is the case - the supply of both could be decreasing at the same rate. Or the price of ecto could be being held steady due to its 'perceived' value as people attempt to sell high and buy low.

Showtime · Apr 03, 2009, 07:30 PM // 19:30

It's doable... as long as you can buy it up faster than they can farm it AND this will be just as hard, buy it up as fast as people sell it to the trader.

Ever go to a trader and he was out of something? If you really needed it, how much more did you pay to get it?

Example's of this happening is when uber assassin build hit and there were no runes. The merchant running out of Superior Vigors, etc.

The best example of this happening with materials is when factions came out and there was the Great Steel Shortage*. There wasn't enough steel for the new armors and weapons. Prices went even higher due to dealers buying up anything that came into the merchant and reselling it. I had acquired 20+ stacks on a whim during the months leading up to it. My friend got into iron and I didn't want to compete, so I took steel. I was buying them up at 85-100 each. Factions came out and I was the cheapest dealer and still made a killing. Mostly selling just enough for armor or armor and weapons at a time to individuals. Other dealers offered more than that to buy all, but it was neat to be able to give people a "deal" and still make a killing.

Will you be able to do this with ectos, not until it gets less than 1k imo. You DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH GOLD since the vast majority of gold is tied up into ectos. Plus as soon as farmers see ectos rise back up, they will farm and sell to merchant for easy money. I think ectos are going to go the way of the onyx and diamond unless there is a huge influx of new players that want uber armors. Might as well buy uber pets or something less volatile.

*OK maybe not so great, but it lasted for a couple of weeks and I made out like a bandit.

Lasai · Apr 04, 2009, 02:38 PM // 14:38

I guess I would like to point out that there are hardly any actual money sinks in game. No decay, no repairs, marginal use of consumables, etc.

The bulk of player purchases are pure fluff, none of which are necessary to play the game. 5 plat armor and 5 plat weapons properly runed and modded are all that is needed to accomplish anything and everything in game.

A true economy is based on cost of items NEEDED to play the game, you cannot base a game economy on pure fluff and status items. If cost of raws to produce luxury armors exceeds the perceived status value of same, they won't be purchased save by very few.

Given the endless supply of ectos ingame, don't expect to pull a DeBeers and control a luxury item mkt, and that is all it is, a Market, not an economy.

Hanok Odbrook · Apr 04, 2009, 10:49 PM // 22:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by Showtime

It's doable... as long as you can buy it up faster than they can farm it AND this will be just as hard, buy it up as fast as people sell it to the trader.

My friend got into iron and I didn't want to compete, so I took steel. I was buying them up at 85-100 each. Factions came out and I was the cheapest dealer and still made a killing.

Some more good points that seem to be forgotten or not even considered. A real economy is not only based on supply and demand, but the actual suppliers and manufacturers as well, and the fact that not everyone can make everything they need or want.

Anyone in this game can produce ectos by farming. The only difference would be how skilled one was. Unlike the real world where not everyone can manufacture a car or run a restaurant - every single player in this game has the same potential to produce ecto.

And then, as you mention, every single player in this game can set their own price for said ecto, much as you did with the steel. Since ecto costs only real world time to produce, there is no restriction on how low a player can sell the ecto for. Quite frankly, I can begin farming ecto and simply give them away for free if I so desired.

So not even creating or raising a set price on ecto at merchants or traders will work either, as Aeon221 suggests, since there is nothing to stop me from selling at a lesser price than what the cost is at an NPC or every other farmer out there. Multiply that by having my friends and guildmates do the same, and the price of ecto will drop even further as players will simply wait for one us to log on and buy it at our cheap rate as opposed to what every other player is selling them for.

Hanok Odbrook

belladonna shylock · Apr 05, 2009, 01:53 AM // 01:53

Hanok Odbrook ,

I think your model lacks rational actions (to an extent) BUT is factual in a vacuum.

In the real world everyone sorta has the same ability to "acquire" any skill they wish to. The problem is time. If you learn to manufacture a car, you probably won't have the time to run a restaurant. This is the opportunity cost. Same can be said about stuff here. The problem is time. Since time is a resource, it can be used up doing one thing, thus not allowing you to do another. If you want to learn DOA and be great at it, you're going to spend less time being great at GVG. So, while everyone CAN learn to farm ecto, not all choose to.

Also, if the ecto trader did raise their price for ecto, i'm sure everyone who is selling ecto will as well. This is only rational. As a matter of fact it happens now. This is why there are power sellers for zkeys in the game. There are people who are willing to sell them below what the market is willing to pay, yet you won't see people waiting around all game for those people to sign on. Even the people who buy them cheap tend to resell them at a higher price because they know there is a market.

Keep in mind the rare material trader is a price ceiling for ecto.

Hanok Odbrook · Apr 07, 2009, 09:31 PM // 21:31

With that post I was more or less giving the counter side to what the original OP proposed. Certainly for something like that to succeed, there would have to be enough of those players farming enough ecto that they could readily supply it.

The point is, there are too many factors involved here to make any talk of some kind of "bail out" pointless. All it really comes down to is a handful of players looking to keep their e-peen as large as possible, when the reality of it is, the vast majority of the players could not care any less about that e-peen. When push comes to shove, the end result will be that the average player will end up acquiring what he needs on his own, or getting it from another average player for what amounts to virtual breadcrumbs.

Hanok Odbrook

Nodakim · Apr 07, 2009, 11:27 PM // 23:27

I dont care about the ecto and all that a lot.Only when i get a drop in UW or when i gather 5000 balthazar faction or tournament points.
To be honest i never used them in trades.Rarely they are larger then 100k,and if they are,thats probably items in stack,so multiple trades are possible.
Black dye and lockpicks should be used instead of ectos and zkeys.
Why?They are more stable.There is no way you can crash an lockpicks price.They have a static price.
Black dye cant be overfarmed because it drops everywhere and it drops at the same ratio.It is worth more then an ecto also.